SITUATION

North Korea attacked South Korea through a mortar or artillery strike with approximately 50 shells hitting a South Korean military base during a SK training event.  The attack resulted in the deaths of both South Korean civilians and military in one of the most significant escalations in decades.

ANALYSIS

While this attack obviously raises tensions between the two countries, it is more likely an event orchestrated by North Korea for the purpose of shoring up support internally for the rise of Kim Jong Il’s son as the next leader of the isolated country.  North Korea will likely cease hostilities for the time being and will expand its internal and external Information Operations / Propaganda efforts over the course of the next year during the leadership transition.  A perceived ancillary benefit of the attack further supports the North’s posturing with regard to any nuclear negotiations.

SITUATION:

Immediately after the departure of coalition forces from the above outposts in mid-April 2010, insurgents re-infiltrated into the Korengal Valley and continued to traverse the valley and use the remote areas as a staging point for attacks on the closest American combat outpost, COP Michigan, located at the mouth of the Korengal Valley along the main Pech River Valley (home to the main Afghan villages in the area).

While the mountaintop Korengal Valley US fighting positions had attracted many attacks by insurgent forces over the last several years, this tended to keep them away from the greater population centers along the bigger Pech River Valley.  Once the Korengal positions were closed, WITHIN 2 DAYS, the effectiveness of construction and humanitarian projects driven by coalition forces based at COP Michigan diminished greatly as operational focus now shifted toward base defense and offensive operations in and around the Pech Valley and back into the mouth of the Korengal to go after the enemy hidden in their surrounding hilltop locations.

ANALYSIS:

While requiring regular aerial resupply assets to maintain, the Korengal Valley positions had provided an effective deterrence to enemy attacks or a “blocking force” for the more strategically significant and more populated Pech River Valley.  The Valley itself and its surrounding areas contain a great number of trails and mountaintop routes where enemy forces can move material and weapons more easily- it is extremely difficult to deliver or even direct effective UAV surveillance to cover all of these “ratlines” crisscrossing this important Al Qaeda corridor, and the local inhabitants led by Haji Matin and other Taliban or Al Qaeda leaders have greater freedom of movement now that US forces are not regularly patrolling the hillsides in and around the Korengal Valley.

With the removal of US positions in the high grounds of the Korengal Valley, enemy forces will continue to have greater freedom of movement to stage operations and more effectively attack at various points along the Pech River and at other locations in Kunar and Nuristan.  Further, it will now be more difficult to re-enter the Korengal Valley for future clearance operations and at a greater risk for loss of life for coalition forces.

ANALYSIS:

While several news sources have reported that enemy fire did not play a role in this helicopter crash, it should be noted that there has been a significant increase in surface to air attacks against coalition aircraft over the course of 2010, both in frequency and in sophistication of weapons systems (shoulder-fired, guided missiles).  The increases have been especially prevalent in the southern portion of Afghanistan.

ANALYSIS:

Today’s attack was likely the result of enemy forces taking advantage of an absence of supporting aircraft or lull in combat operations.  As seen in the news, a major air assault operation has been conducted over the last several days in the mountains to the east of Jalalabad.

This major helicopter operation, controlled by the 1st Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division, based there at Jalalabad (JAF), would have been executed from this airfield itself.  It is highly likely that the Afghan forces involved in that ongoing operation departed from JAF several days ago as well.  JAF is the closest helicopter airfield to the ongoing battles out to the east- providing both troop delivery and attack / close air support.

In previous battles like Ramadi, the local enemy forces saw an opportunity to attack and took advantage of a time when there were likely significantly less friendly forces (and supporting helicopters) actually located at the base.

“The Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend” – Arabian Proverb

1. Hamas v. Fatah
2. Al Qaeda v. Shia in Iraq

Major Events in Regional Conflicts Today
In less than 18 hours, two major events have occurred that could potentially change the face of two regional conflicts in the Middle East.  Yesterday, Hamas seized the security headquarters of Fatah.  Today, The Holy Shrine of Samarra, site of last year’s February 22 flashpoint bombing which kicked off sectarian warfare across Iraq, was again bombed by Al Qaeda.  Further, Muqtada al Sadr, who previously had accused Sunni insurgents of targeting the Golden Dome, now himself believes that this was the work of Al Qaeda (Perception is Reality).

It is our analysis that AQIZ (Al Qaeda in Iraq) operations in the greater Baghdad region have now become significantly disrupted due to the 2007 troop “surge”, and continuous coalition operations around the city.  Attacks are now being focused on big ticket targets such as critical infrastructure and religious sites, similar to the pattern shifts of attacks seen in Ramadi specifically to suicide bombings as coalition forces and Sunnis interrupted the operational tempo of a desperate Al Qaeda force.

Reaching out to Fatah / Muqtadr al Sadr
Depending on the frequency of further significant events in the coming days, these two attacks might separately play an extremely significant role in the conflict in Gaza, and potentially also on the War in Iraq.  US diplomacy may be able to capitalize on these events to bring pause to the respective conflicts.

As Fatah is now on the defensive, and Hamas is currently being funded and supported by Iran and Syria, there is an opportunity to extend overtures to Fatah in trying to build a working relationship with Israel.  This may be their only chance for political and military survival.  Palestinian hatred for the Israelis will certainly not fade for generations, but there may be some positive lasting effects if the US can somehow facilitate at least a short term relationship between the opposing groups.

Concurrently, in Iraq, as bridges and mosques crash to the ground around him, Muqtada al Sadr may soon realize US troops are the lesser of two evils when compared to Al Qaeda.  Similarly to the Israelis and Palestinians, the gulf between Sunni and Shia may not close for decades, but fighting Al Qaeda may  now become an increasingly important goal for Shiite rulers.

Further, these events may allow the US to drive a wedge between Sadr and Iran (or at least weaken that country’s influence).  It would certainly NOT make any sense for US forces to materially support Sadr’s militias, but these events might facilitate more open dialogue between the two groups to push more reasonable diplomacy and a cessation of hostilities between Sunni and Shia.

As of 6 pm Eastern US, June 14th, 2007

The Fall of Fatah
Over the last 48 hours, Hamas forces have systematically dismantled an entrenched government and its political and military forces, taking over what seems to be every Fatah military or government facility in Gaza- killing significant numbers of Fatah supporters in the process.The speed and efficiency in which these events have played out indicates a complex, well-planned and well-supported military campaign that may resemble structured operations executed by any one of the world’s professional armies.

Given the complete surprise achieved by Hamas forces, with strong indications of their enhanced abilities to command, control and communicate among different elements operating at the same time, this appears to be a clear indication of influence by outside elements such as Iran.

COINCIDENCE
* Al Qaeda- supported militants operating out of Lebanese refugee camps begin to attack Lebanese government forces.

* The Iranian-supported Islamic Jihad terror group attempts a cross-border “Snatch and Grab”-type mission into Israel from the Gaza Strip.  Reportedly orchestrated by Syria and Iran, this is the same type of mission which ignited Israel’s 2006 incursion into Gaza last year

**Iran is supporting current actions in Gaza as a screen for international concerns regarding its nuclear program and the IAEA’s report yesterday on Iran’s recent advancements in nuclear technology.  This is a repeat performance of Iran’s support for the Hezbollah incursion into Israel 1 year ago, on the same date that Iran was to report to the IAEA regarding its developments in nuclear technology.

Looking at this coup not in isolation, but as one element in a chain of events, occurring immediately after militant attacks.

IMPLICATIONS

It is likely that Iran and Syria are increasing their support of Hamas, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda operations in an attempt to further destabilize their respective areas of influence.

Expect further attacks and raids in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Israel by forces supported by Iran with the objective to further destabilize the region.